TCU won't be joining the Big 12. Move on, Horned Frog fans. But with the recent announcement by the Big East that the conference will expand to at least 2 teams, talk in Ft. Worth has swirled regarding TCU moving to the home of West Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville, and the rest.
The move would be a mistake. Sure, the Big East has a guaranteed spot at the BCS bowl table. And their basketball league is second to none (though their is debate about whether or not expansion would include the basketball league - which is twice the size of the football conference teams). From a strictly football perspective, TCU has more to lose than gain in the current system by heading to the weakest conference in the BCS world.
Boise State is coming to the Mountain West next year, guaranteeing the conference a premier showdown each year between the current non-BCS darlings of the past few seasons: TCU and Boise State. It would surprise no one to find one of those two teams playing for the BCS title THIS season (assuming TCU can get by Utah this weekend, it seems more likely to expect celebration in Ft. Worth than Idaho).
Compare a potential MWC and Big East with the move by the Horned Frogs:
Starting in 2012
Mountain West: TCU, Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico
Big East: Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse, TCU, Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnatti, UCONN, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Does the MWC really look that much worse than the Big East? Staying in the MWC gives a better shot of strength of schedule to TCU as they compete for national titles in football than leaving for the Big East does.
We all know it's not about the best thing for competitive nature or what makes sense on the field, but its all about the cash. And until the MWC gets a seat at the BCS table, they won't have the cash to keep up with even the likes of the mediocre Big East. Should they get the invite, I'm sure TCU will take it. Whether it produces better results on the football field is a question that remains up for debate.
As an aside - is there any way if BYU and Utah had stayed in the MWC that he BCS could have denied that conference an automatic bid?
Think about this conference: BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico. Tantalizing. And certainly better than the Big East. Perhaps on par with the watered down Big 12.
