Monday, October 19, 2009

BCS

The BCS standings came out last night, and to no surprise the top 3, in order were Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Each team controls its fate - win and they're in the National Championship. The Gators and Tide appear headed for a collision in Atlanta for the SEC Championship in December, while the Horns face two challenges over the rest of October before their schedule gives them a breather. We all know how the BCS means little to nothing at this point, and each of these teams has glaring flaws that could cause a slip up on the road to Pasadena.

For Florida, the problem is the reliance on Tim Tebow to run the offense. Along with Texas's Colt McCoy, Tebow has failed to live up to preseason Heisman hype and provide a dominant statistical performance on the field. His game winning drive on Saturday against Arkansas may impress the voters, but the fact that the Gators offense is sputtering under his and coach Urban Meyer's direction in 2009 is a surprise. It looks like the speed and misdirection provided by Percy Harvin in 2008 may have been more of a factor in determining Florida's success than the "brilliant" play by Jesus (ooops - I mean Tebow). Unless the running game from UF can get more consistency, Florida's sub-par passing attack will falter when the Gators need it most. Tebow has minimal effectiveness as a true passing QB, and this deficiency will become more glaring as the season progresses.

For the Alabama Crimson Tide, the misstep could come just in the difficulty of schedule remaining. For Nick Saban, getting through the SEC west unscathed will take tremendous focus from a staff that usually slips up sometime during the season. The passing attach leaves something to be desired as well, but all their QB has to do is keep defenses honest while Mark Engram (the new Heisman favorite) pounds out 150-200 yards a game. If they can get Julio Jones back healthy for legit deep ball threats, Alabama should have the inside track on Florida. The question is can they make it to Atlanta without a loss?

Texas seems to have the easiest approach. Simply win out and one of the two teams ahead of the Horns is bound to lose. The trip-up could come at Missouri this week or at Oklahoma State Halloween night. Texas's offense has been synonymous with inconsistency in 2009, while the defense continues to shine (the exact opposite of the 2008 season, where the offense led the way to a 12-1 season). The biggest problem? Play-calling. The Horns and media have talked constantly about getting a running game going, but refuse to utilize their best offensive weapon with his feet in Colt McCoy to open the game up. In what seems to be an effort to avoid getting McCoy banged, Texas has gone to what appears to be a zone read offense with no actual read - McCoy just hands the ball from the shotgun. Play action passes from this formation have looked half-hearted at best. Teams realize their has been no threat from McCoy to run (save for the 2nd half against OU this year, McCoy has rarely taken off down the field in 2009) and are thus able to key in on the stable of UT running backs. In addition, offensive coordinator Greg Davis has apparently refused to get McCoy out of the pocket and on the run to make plays down field, a skill set that the seniors accuracy makes him well suited for. Until the offense gets McCoy moving, he will continue to struggle with turnovers - he sometimes looks lost and out of sync. Expect Missouri and especially OK State to capitalize on this until Mack Brown and the gang change it up.

All this said - those 3 teams have clearly distinguished themselves up to this point by remaining unbeaten. At this point, it looks like we're going to get Alabama vs. Texas for the Championship. I don't see Florida beating Alabama in the SEC title game until their running game gets moving. Despite their troubles, Texas just beat the best team on the schedule in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, and should have just enough talent to get by OK State on the 31st. From their it should be clear sailing to Pasadena.

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