For Texas to stand a chance against Duke, the Horns will need the inside out game to be performing at optimal levels with AJ Abrams and Dexter Pittman. Abrams will need to hit every open shot he gets, because you can bet Coach K will ensure the Dukies won't give him too many. Pittman, whose become a beast inside over the last few weeks, will need to be patient against what will likely be some sort of zone defense from the Blue Devils. Pittman, while showing signs of dominance, is still a subpar passer out of the post, and looks flustered and panicked when double teamed down low. He'll need to figure out how to step through the double teams and collapsing D to find the open shooters.
Two key factors that you might not think about - can Dogus Balbay and Varez Ward handle the pressure Duke will apply all game long? If the two headed point guard combo can protect the ball and get Texas into their offense, the Horns might have a chance. If they turn the ball over and get the Devils running, look out. The other factor - can someone from Texas stretch the D with outside shooting? Thursday night it was Damion James hitting a couple of threes to stretch Minnesota across the court, opening the lane for Ward drives and Pittman posts. Preferably, I'd like to see Connor Atchley show his form from last year with some three point bangers. In all liklihood, Duke will put lanky Kyle Singler on Damion James. James should take his off the dribble and attack the basket, letting Connor take the open outside shots while the Dukies work to close out.
If all of those things go well, Texas should win. Of course, I certainly don't expect all of those things to go well. Texas has been too inconsistant this season - but so has Duke.
Prediction (a Duke win) Duke 88 Texas 72
Prediction (a Texas win) Texas 79 Duke 74
My guess - Texas.
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