A high ranking this year for the UT basketball team may set the Horns up for some early returns to earth. Sure, they have the nations #1 recruit in the freshman class with Avery Bradley, and the #8 recruit in Jordan Hamilton as well as 4 of 5 starters returning. In theory everything looks great for a team most agree is the deepest in the country. So what are they missing? The same thing they missed last year - a perimeter game.
Unless the freshman coming into this year's team can light it up from 3 point range, the Longhorns will have many of the same troubles that plagued them during last years sub-par (for Austin standards) performance. Texas loses its best 3 point shooter in AJ Abrams from last year, he of the 39% 3 point shooting performance. The next highest rater deep ball threat returning to this year's squad? Try Damion James (32.6%). When your starting power forward is your best returning 3 point shooter, you might leave something to be desired on the wing.
Last year teams were able to neutralize the Texas offense because the Horns were unable to stretch the D with the long ball. Historically, Rick Barnes has allowed his offense to run through the point guard or a quick perimeter player (and why wouldn't he - with DJ Augustin, Kevin Durant and TJ Ford among his recent players), the idea being to force the defense to collapse on the player penetration and free up shooters on the wings or find the big man down low. Last year, the big man down low, Dexter Pittman, did his part. It was the curious performance of the Texas 3 point shooters that let the Horns falter down the stretch. Once defenses also figured out that the man running the Texas offense couldn't shoot either (be it Justin Mason or Dogus Balbay), teams were content to back off the Longhorn shooters and let them fire away. The strategy worked to perfection, especially when teams locked down Abrams.
This year, expect more of the same until Texas can prove it either 1) recruited some players with long range touch or 2) brought in Reggie Miller to run shooting clinics all summer for our returning players. Of the UT players returning this year, each of the following hoisted at least one 3-pointer in the 2008-2009 campaign: Damion James, Varez Ward, Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, Gary Johnson, and Clint Chapman. Their combined 3 point shooting percentage: 24.8%.
If this can't improve for the 09-10 campaign, teams will once again match up the Horns in a zone, daring them to shoot, and taking away the deep and powerful Texas frontline.
My guess? The backcourt and wing players from last year's team will lose playing time to the hyped freshman as the young guns find their deep ball range, leaving the post an easier place for James, Pittman, and Johnson to roam. While I might miss Dogus Balbay's ferocity, or Justin Mason's lock down D, or Varez Ward's ability to get to the rim, it will be nice to see a few jumpers fall this winter. The fact is, the veterans have proven over the course of their careers that their games are not predicated on the long ball - if Texas hopes to compete for a Final Four birth, Barnes will need to turn the ball over to the freshman and let it fly.
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