CFN #6: Texas Tech Preview

A preseason preview of what to expect when Texas meets Texas Tech September 18.


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A new coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator, and a bubbling quarterback controversy. While it doens't sound like the recipe for success against the Texas Longhorns, the Red Raiders may be able to pull off some huge upsets with their new leading men in 2010. The game against Texas Tech won't be as easy as some folks think.

Offense
Texas Tech is replacing their offensive coordinator and head coach Mike Leach. In his ten years in Lubbock, Leach only had a QB lead the nation in total offense three times. With a system predicated on spreading the ball around to different receivers and allowing them to make plays by spreading out the defense, Leach built the most prolific offenses of the last decade out in the middle of the dusty West Texas plains.

Now Leach is gone, replaced by the less controversial Tommy Tuberville. Fans of college football will remember TT as the man who led the 2004 Auburn Tigers to an undefeated record (though no national title), only to be ousted as head coach at the end of the 2008 season after failing to successfully install a new offense. What offense was that? A spread, similar in theory to the same scheme designed and perfected by his predecessor in Lubbock.

So how will Tech take to the new stylings of Tuberville? The change may not be as drastic as folks think, and may in fact help TTU get over the final hump which has kept them second tier in the Big 12 south behind OU and UT. Tuberville kept Dan Brown, a young coach (29) who played a few years under Leach and Hal Mumme in Kentucky in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Now, the newly anointed youngest offensive coordinator in the Big 12 has some legendary shoes to fill – those of his mentor Leach.

If 2009 was the year of the QB controversy for the Red Raiders, don’t expect much different this season. Tech has sold more season tickets than ever before heading into the 2010 campaign, and will be opening renovated Jones Stadium this year. Which means the pressure will be on Brown and Tuberville to succeed, early and often. Tech coaches recently anointed Taylor Potts the starting QB job, but you can bet his backup, Steven Sheffield will be breathing down his back.

Tuberville says the job is Potts’s, and he won’t yank him right away if he isn’t getting the job done. But Potts is shaky on his feet in the pocket, and even with the improved running attack that Tuberville promises will be a compliment to the spread Brown will install, Potts is going to have to learn to stick in the pocket and wait for his man to break open. Against a team like Texas, and that ferociously good secondary, don’t expect too much patience from a guy who’s already been shellacked by the Longhorns once (remember the hit from Sergio Kindle in 2009)?

If Tuberville can truly create a running game to keep some defenses honest, he should have no trouble matching last year’s win total. For all the hype about Leach following 2008, when Tech went 11-2, the fact is he averaged a record of 8-4 over his 10 years as head coach. His offense, while effective against the less impressive teams, was only moderately successful against the big boys, including Texas (2-8). Oftentimes, including 2003 and 2007, Tech found itself outplayed against the Longhorns in games that turned into shootouts. Don’t expect that in 2010 – because the Texas defensive strength is its ultra athletic secondary, Tech will have to figure a way to ground the ball with either short screen passes or by running the ball. You can bet Tubby will go with what makes him comfortable – don’t be surprised to see Potts under center and dropping back to hand the ball to Barren Batch more often on September 18 than you would have EVER seen Leach do the same. Running the ball may be Tech’s only chance.

Defense

Tuberville will be installing a 3-4 defense, but won’t have the man power to actually play it. This is going to result in an questionable success rate for a team whose offseason motto over the past few years has been “Man, our defense is going to be GOOD this year,” only to watch that same D crumble and the let the team down. While 5 starters return, this is the same group that gave up 52 points to Texas A&M at home last year.

Specifically against Texas, though, this group may have an advantage: new defensive coordinator Patrick Willis, who was instrumental in helping draft the game plan for a defense who flummoxed Texas QB Garrett Gilbert in the BCS title game in 2009. As linebackers coach at Alabama, Willis helped mold some of the best LBs in the country down in Tuscaloosa, and his work with Kirby Smart and Nick Saban can only make the defensive units at Texas Tech improve. Whether or not this improvement will come in time for the Red Raiders 3rd game remains to be seen.

So what will happen? Tech will keep the game closer than many experts think. Because Gilbert won’t have been tested yet, this will be his true first road experience against a quality opponent. Texas fans know that weird things happen in Lubbock on Saturday nights, especially to Texas. The game is certainly no gimme, but the Texas defense should be able to limit the effectiveness of a Tech offense in a transitional phase. The key will be whether the defensive tackles at Texas can stuff the run that Tuberville will likely try to impose on them. They likely will, leaving the game in the hands of Taylor Potts in the face of constant and varying pressure from Will Muschamp and the Texas D. While Gilbert won’t shine, he’ll do just enough to earn the win, 27-17.