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Game #1
Texas at Rice (Reliant Stadium)
Saturday, September 4 2:30PM CDT on ESPN2
The 2010 Rice Owls are coming off a disappointing '09 campaign, when their total points per game dropped by over 10, following a surprise run to the Texas Bowl Championship and a 10-3 record in 2008. As a program that seems to be in constant flux, Rice is looking to return to a more offensively potent attack under fourth year head coach David Bailiff.
Offense
Offensively, the only question that matters is quarterback. Right now, 10 days before hosting Texas, Rice has no idea who the starter will be when they take the field against the Longhorns. Surely within the next week and a half, this will be decided, but the fact of the matter is, a 3 person rotation at the most important position on the field won't cut the mustard. Until Taylor Cook, Nick Fannuzi, or Taylor McHagure step up, the offense could remain as bogged down in 2010 as it was last year.
The wide receivers and running backs are marginal at best. This is still Rice. However, Bailiff spent a considerable amount of time in the offseason working on bringing more running to his spread attack. Perhaps this will help the Owls down the road. Don't bet on it against Texas.
The offensive line returns 4 players who have started at least 10 games, and 3 All Conference-USA players. If this group can gel, and find some time for whichever QB steps up, then the Owls may have a chance to surprise some folks in C-USA this year. But again - not Texas.
Defense
Last year, Rice gave up 43.1 points per game, 120th in FBS. Yikes. The team is loaded with young players, many of whom were adjusting to the speed of the game. And C-USA has some of the top offensives in the country with Houston and SMU. But still - when your offense is only getting 18 points a contest, you've got to find a way to stop somebody. At some point. Sometime. Just wow.
The D is led by defensive end Cheta Ozougwu, who had a career year in 2009 with highs in tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss. Alex Lowry anchors the 3-4 unit at noseguard, and started 10 games as a freshman in '09. The D is young, which bodes well for Rice's future. But, the D remains young, which bodes not-so-well for their first game.
Outlook
The opening lines from Vegas have Texas as a 27.5 point favorite. If I were a betting man, I'd take Texas. BIG. The Longhorns will use this game to establish their new offensive system, allowing a variety of running backs (Tre Newton and Fozzy Whitaker come to mind) to run ram-shot over Rice while giving their reconfigured offensive line some confidence against an inferior run defense. Additionally, Mack Brown knows he needs to boost the psyche of first year QB Garrett Gilbert, and having the sophomore at the reins of a monster blowout can do just that.
On the other side of the ball, a shutout wouldn't surprise anyone. Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp enters his third year in Austin, and he's looking to find playmakers to replace S Earl Thomas, LB Sergio Kindle, DT Lamarr Houston, and LB Roddrick Muckelroy - a quartet that led the Horns to the BCS Title game last year. Expect new names to step up and get their feet wet against the softer Owls. Whoever loses that Rice starting QB job better not get too comfortable on the bench - Muschamp brings the heat, and the Longhorns may just knock a few QBs loopy trying to establish their dominance.
Over the past few years, it seems Texas has played Rice with some regularity. And the result always seem to be 52-10. I'd expect a similar outlook at Reliant on September 4th. The good news for Rice? At least the roof will be closed, so they can avoid a treacherous Houston September afternoon.
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